Negotiation # 2

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December 16, 2005

In May 2005, when turmoil from inside and international pressure from outside forced a contested democratic election, EPRDF lost, but used the only means it knows to stay in power, FORCE! Election inspectors from both the US and Europe reported voting irregularities in many places, but non of these so called fathers of democracy were willing to publicly denounce Meles and company for all tribulations they committed during and after the election. Between May and September 2005 the Ethiopian opposition was in a shoe that it had never been before. The two main opposition groups, CUD and UEDF showed some rudimentary signs of collaboration in the hot button issues of the country. Though the two groups jointly and individually made some mistakes, their collaboration was wowed by many Ethiopians inside and outside. The group effort of CUD and UEDF has earned the opposition respect, and as a result obdurate Meles was forced to bow to the opposition’s demand of negotiation, however, during the short lived negotiation; Meles played a strategic game while the opposition played a negligible tactical game. Meles, who in advance knew the consequences of the stay home strikes and the demonstration, did not want to see both before the opening of the parliament. He managed to win his strategic game by banning the planned demonstration and by begging western diplomats to pressure the opposition to call off the strikes. Meles was blessed by the naive opposition to cool off the people’s wrath, the only power that could have brought his totalitarian regime to an end. The opposition failed to use its only power, the people’s power. Instead of listening to its constituency, the opposition listened to the Western diplomats who despite acknowledging serious election irregularities hard-pressed the opposition to join the parliament.

Today, most of the leaders of CUDP are in jail accused of treason, and more than twenty thousand people are languishing in the prisons of ‘Shewa Robbit’ and ‘Dedessa valley’, the present day “Devil’s Islands”! In the diplomatic arena, diplomats of the Western donor countries are making yet another attempt to bring EPRDF and the opposition to the negotiation table. Obviously, negotiation is a civilized way of resolving differences, but in reality, when the stake of compromising is too high for the negotiating parties; the party that has a relatively stronger barging power will impose its will on the other party. Definitely, EPRDF might not have the people at its side, but it sure has political power and a monstrous force that can take immediate and drastic measures. In this situation, the opposition should extremely be cautious in the give and take game of negotiation. To begin with, the opposition should never accept the call for negotiation as long as the CUDP’s leadership is in custody. In fact, the opposition should be wise enough to use the muscle of the Western donor countries to force EPRDF release innocent CUDP leaders in precisely the same way EPRDF used the western diplomats to pressure the opposition to abort the stay home strikes. EPRDF has already seen the will of the Ethiopian people, and what people can do under the leadership of CUDP and other opposition parties. One thing is certain, EPRDF can time and again kill demonstrators, but such killings will not continue indefinitely; peaceful people may be rounded up and jailed in mass, but there is no jail that can hold all freedom seekers. The mass imprisonment and the street killing will vanish like a winter cloud that vanishes in to September clear sunny sky, but all this is possible if the opposition plays the right game that attracts the participation of the Ethiopian people.

The true anatomy of TPLF should not be an epiphany to the opposition or to the Ethiopian people at large, in the last fifteen years, TPLF has exposed it self by all things acted and not acted. No matter how beautifully it paints itself, Ethiopians have perceived the true nature of TPLF long before its recent cosmetic surgery. The political maturity of the opposition will be put to test again. Have they become aware of the seemingly fair but potentially overwhelming game EPRDF plays? If the opposition selects the right strategy that can energize the Ethiopian people, and brings the downfall of EPRDF, it passes the test. All in all, to protect the popular struggle and abridge the inevitable transition to victory, the opposition needs to smartly forecast EPRDF’s game strategy and at the mean time design its own wining strategy. Any strategy that satisfies Meles and company to any degree can not be a winning strategy. The game between EPRDF and the true sons and daughters of Ethiopia is not a win-win game; it is a win-loose game. We should win, and we will WIN!